Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
